October Program
Half-Day Workshop on Trust

November Program
2010 Economic Outlook

December Program
Presentation Skills

January 2010 Program
Achieve Success in 2010

2009 Fall Program Schedule
Print out the expanded information and mark your calendar.

President's Corner
Planning in Turbulent Times
Dave Vance
ASTD-NRC President

Partner Events
Upcoming ASTD-NRC partner events and other events of interest.

Welcome to the October Newsletter!

We hope you will spend a few minutes checking out the upcoming programs which are planned through December so you can calendar them well in advance. Notice a few things in particular:

   • The October program is a half-day workshop at the Embassy Suites with Michelle Cummings who presented to us in March (You said, “Bring her back!”). Only $79 for members/partners!!
   • The November lunch program features Dr Martin Shields with the 2010 Economic Outlook for the US and Our Region.

Also, our partners NCCA and ASTD-RMC (Denver) have several exciting programs planned this fall. See their announcements below.

New members for September include Rebecca Wallace, Keith Clayton and Melissa Powell. Welcome! We look forward to getting to know you.

Renewing members include Carrie Pinsky and Chris Hutchinson. Thank you for renewing! We appreciate your continuing support.
 

Imagine a workplace that is relaxed, yet energized, with employees who are focused, passionate, and incredibly productive. The key to such a place is what we call the Trust Factor. In this thought-provoking and interactive program, participants will discover how powerful an impact trust can have on improving relationships, performance, and their overall work environment.

Click here for expanded details.
Date: Tuesday, October 20, 2009  7:30 am - 12:00
Location: Embassy Suites Centerra (I-25 and Crossroads Blvd)
$79 Member/$99 Nonmember
Register Here

Martin Shields, Regional Economist and Associate Professor at Colorado State University, will share the economic outlook for the country and for our region. Join us to learn about the prospects for next year and get answers to your planning questions: What will the recovery look and feel like? What areas will lead and where will employment pick up first? What are the critical assumptions underlying the forecast?  Click here for expanded details.

Gillian Driscoll, an award winning public speaker, will share tips and techniques to improve your presentation skills. Gillian has a PhD in Communication from the University of Colorado and is the owner of Communication Strategies, LLC

 It is a New Year and the recession is finally over!
Jep Enck, well-known and high-energy presenter, will challenge us to take advantage of the improving economy to be successful in 2010. After the bruising recession of 2008-2009, many are reluctant to take the steps (and the risks) necessary for success in the new year. Jep will share his insights on strategy, risk taking, and creativity to help us reengage for success. Join us for an energizing,  motivational look at 2010.
Date: Tuesday, January 19, 2010  11:30 am - 1:30 pm
Harmony Grill, Fort Collins, CO
$15 Members/Partners and $25 Nonmember
Register Here

Other News & Events

Northern Colorado Coaches Alliance
(NCCA)
Thursday, October 15, 2009
6:15pm - 8:00pm
Membership Meeting
First presentation in the new series
"The Business of Coaching"
Social Media Use for Coaches with Carl Dierschow
More info

Thursday, November 5, 2009
6:00-9:00 pm
Specialcial NCCA Event!
Naked Networking:
Down to the Bare Basics
More info
 

Northern Colorado Human
Resources Assn. (NCHRA)
Monday, October 26-27, 2009
9am to 5:00pm
Implementing The Business Case for Breastfeeding in Your Community American Cancer Society - Brooks Conference Center
For more details, click here.
 

Colorado Career Development Assoc.
(CCDA)
Friday, October 16, 2009
CCDA Fall Conference: Strategies for Succeeding in today's Emerging Economy
 
Tuesday, October 29, 2009
9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m
University of Denver Federal Advisor Training
For more details

 
November 7, 2009
9:30AM-5:30PM
Callings: Find and Follow Your Authentic Life
University of Denver
For more details.
 

ASTD Rocky Mountain Chapter
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
ASTD - RMC Half-Day Workshop
Using the Denison Model to Get Your Organization Un-stuck with Bill Neale
For more information, Click here.

Thursday, November 5, 2009
ASTD - RMC Half-Day Workshop
Accelerated Learning with Lou Russell
For more information, click here.

 
Loveland Chamber of Commerce
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
7:30 AM - 9:00 AM
CyberChat - Facebook for Business
Visit the website.

Thursday, October 29, 2009
4:00 PM - 8:00 PM
Carving Connections 2009 Annual Business Expo
Visit the website.

For most organizations, fall means planning for the next year, and this planning season will be harder than most given the turbulent times. At this point in the business cycle, the trick is to strike the right balance between pessimism and optimism so that you are positioned for opportunity but not overly exposed to more bad news.

We will get the latest economic outlook from Dr Martin Shields at our lunch program on November 4th, but most economists believe the recession is technically over or ending. That would put its length at 18-24 months which is the longest since the Great Depression of 1929-1933 and one of the most severe in the post World War II period. At nearly 10%, national unemployment is the highest since 1983.

In this economic environment, many companies and government bodies have been forced to make deep cuts in staff, program spending and capital investments. For most, these reductions also have applied to training, as you would expect when cuts go this deep. So now the question becomes, “Should we increase spending (overall and on training more specifically) in 2010, hold steady at this lower level for the year, or cut further?”

The answer, of course, depends on many factors. First is the outlook for your particular industry. Some will continue to contract in 2010 even as the economy improves. Many government bodies will face even greater revenue shortfalls in 2010 and some private sectors like commercial real estate will continue to decline. Most sectors, however, should see growth next year assuming the recovery is underway. This will be true even if the unemployment rate continues to rise for several more months and remains stubbornly high for a while. (This is a typical pattern early in a recovery which is why the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic performance and why you often hear about a “jobless recovery”.)

So, for most the economic picture should be improving but there are still a lot of uncertainties. A second factor, then, is how much risk you can afford to take. Here it is very important to recognize that there are two types of risk, and it is nearly impossible to avoid both. The first risk is that you are too optimistic about the year. You spend more than you should and perhaps even rehire some employees and launch new programs. Sales do not live up to your expectations, and you lose money. The second type of risk is just the opposite. You are too pessimistic which means that you miss out on some of the growth in sales because you did not hire/rehire enough employees and did not invest in new programs or products. The result is loss of market share and less profit than you could have realized.

Which risk is more important to avoid? It depends. If an organization is struggling financially and its survival is at stake, it must avoid the risk of being too optimistic which could mean the end of the firm. On the other hand, if an organization is more secure financially and well capitalized or has the ability to borrow, the risk of being too optimistic is much less. Here, it may be more important to avoid the second risk especially if the industry is very competitive. Think of industries like electronics or fashion where missing a new product launch can be devastating.

Given the severity of the recession and all the uncertainty, the danger is that many organizations will be too conservative in their 2010 planning. They will focus on avoiding the first risk, and consequently will lose market share and perhaps good employees to competitors. With regard to training, they will not budget enough or hire/rehire enough to meet the demand for training of new employees and for needed up skilling of existing employees. This in turn will lead to suboptimal performance of the entire organization and may result in the loss of excellent employees.

In conclusion, carefully consider your industry prospects and the risks of being too optimistic or too pessimistic. At this turning point in the business cycle, avoid being overly pessimistic. Be ready to gear up for the recovery, especially in the training area which is critical to the organization’s success and where demand may suddenly take off.

Dave Vance is the former Chief Economist for Caterpillar and former President of Caterpillar University. He has a Masters in Business and PhD in Economics.

For Questions, please email info@astd-nrc.org               Visit our website at www.astd-nrc.org